Latest news with #Capital Economics
BBC News
2 days ago
- Business
- BBC News
Who be di winners and losers for US-EU trade deal?
Di US and EU don strike wetin pipo reason as di largest trade deal in history, afta tok-tok for Scotland. E look like di framework for agreement rather dan a full trade deal, and di details still neva dey clear. But di headline figures wey President Donald Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen announce offer clues about which sectors and groups fit be dey hit hardest or get di most to gain. Trump - winner Afta promising new trade deals wit some countries, Trump don land di biggest of dem all. Many commentators dey see am like say EU don give up more, as instant analysis by Capital Economics suggest 0.5% knock to GDP. Plenty billions of dollars go also pour into US coffers in import taxes. Figures on inflation, jobs, growth and consumer confidence go give clearer picture on weda Trump tariffs dey deliver pain or gain. US consumers - loser Ordinary Americans already dey para for di increased cost of living and dis deal fit add to di burden by increasing prices on EU goods. Tariffs na taxes dem dey charge on goods bought from oda kontris. Typically, dem be di percentage of a productalue. So, a 15% tariff go mean say $100 product wey dem import to di US from the EU go get $15 dollar tax added on top - wey go take di total cost of di imported product go $115. Companies wey dey bring foreign goods enta US gatz pay di tax give di govment, and most time dem dey pass some or all of di extra cost on to customers. Markets - winner Stock markets for Asia and Europe rise on Monday afta tori of di deal framework break. Under di framework, US go put 15% tariff on goods dem import from di EU. While dis rate dey significant, e dey less dan wetin e for be and e offer certainty for investors. Di agreement "clearly dey market-friendly, and suppose put further upside potential into di euro", Chris Weston one Australian broker, tell AFP. European solidarity - loser 27 members of di EU go need to sign di deal, each of dem get different interests and levels of reliance on export of goods to US. While some members dey careful of di agreement, odas don criticize am – wey suggest divisions within di bloc. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou say: "Na dark day wen alliance of free pipo, wey come togeda for dia common values and to defend dia common interests, resign diasef to submission." At least two oda French govment ministers and Viktor Orban, di Hungarian leader, wey tok say Trump "eat von der Leyen for breakfast" join am. Carmakers in Germany - loser Di deal don cut into nearly half di tariff wey pipo wey dey import cars from di EU to America dey face. From di rate of 27.5% wey Oga Trump bin impose for April to a new rate of 15%. Cars na one of EU top exports to di US. And as di largest manufacturer of cars for di EU - thanks to VW, Mercedes and BMW, Germany for just dey watch closely. Dia leader, Friedrich Merz, don welcome di new deal, as e admit say im for welcome a "further easing of transatlantic trade". German car making trade body, di VDA echo wetin Oga Merz tok, wey mean say even di rate of 15% go "cost di German automotive industry billions annually". Carmakers for US - winner Trump dey try to boost US vehicle production. American carmakers bin happy wen dem hear say EU dey drop dia own tariff on US-made cars from 10% to 2.5%. Theoretically, e mean say pipo for Europe go dey buy more of American cars. E go dey good for US sales overseas, but di deal no be all good news wen e come to domestic sales. Dat na sake of di complex way wey America dey take put dia cars togeda. Dem dey assemble most of America cars for abroad - for Canada and Mexico - and Trump don sama tariff of 25% on dem wen dem bring dem into di US. Dat compare wit a lower tariff rate of 15% on EU vehicles. So US car makers now fit dey fear make European manufacturers no cut dem off. EU pharmaceuticals - loser Confusion also dey around di tariff rate wey go dey levied on European-made drugs wey US dey import. EU want make drug receive di lowest rate possible, to benefit sales. Trump say di deal wey dem announce on Sunday no cover pharmaceuticals. For di deal, dem bin reduce di tariff rate on some products to 15%. But von der Leyen say pharmaceuticals dey included, and one White House source confam di same to BBC. Either scenario go represent disappointment for European pharma, wey bin initially hope for a total tariff exemption. Di industry currently dey enjoy high exposure to di US marketplace thanks to products like Ozempic, one star type-2 diabetes drug dem dey manufacture for Denmark. Dem don highlight dis point for Ireland, wia opposition parties don point out di importance of di industry and criticise di damaging effect of uncertainty. US energy - winner Trump tok say di EU go buy $750bn (£558bn, €638bn) in US energy, dem go also increase overall investment for US by $600bn. "We go replace Russian gas and oil wit significant purchases of US LNG [liquified natural gas], oil and nuclear fuels," Von der Leyen tok. Dis go deepen links between European energy security and US at a time wen dem dey try to stop importing Russian gas since dia full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Aviation industry in EU and US - winner Von der Leyen tok say some "strategic products" no go attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, some kain chemicals and some agricultural products. Dis one mean say companies wey dey produce components for aeroplanes go get friction-free trade between di big trading blocs. She add say di EU still dey hope to get more "zero-for-zero" agreements, notably for wines and spirits, in di coming days.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Who are the winners and losers in US-EU trade deal?
The US and EU have struck what is being billed as the largest trade deal in history, after talks in Scotland. It actually resembles the framework for an agreement rather than a full trade deal, with details still unclear. But the headline figures announced by President Donald Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen do offer clues about which sectors and groups could be hit hardest or have most to gain. Follow reaction live Trump - winner After promising new trade deals with dozens of countries, Trump has just landed the biggest of them all. It looks to most commentators that the EU has given up more, with instant analysis by Capital Economics suggesting a 0.5% knock to GDP. There will also be tens of billions of dollars pouring into US coffers in import taxes. But the glowing headlines for Trump may not last long if a slew of economic data due later this week show that his radical reshaping of the US economy is backfiring. Figures on inflation, jobs, growth and consumer confidence will give a clearer picture on whether Trump's tariffs are delivering pain or gain. US consumers - loser Ordinary Americans are already aggrieved at the increased cost of living and this deal could add to the burden by hiking prices on EU goods. While not as steep as it could have been, the hurdle represented by a 15% tariff rate is still significant, and it is far more pronounced than the obstacles that existed before Trump returned to office. Tariffs are taxes charged on goods bought from other countries. Typically, they are a percentage of a product's value. So, a 15% tariff means that a $100 product imported to the US from the EU will have a $15 dollar tax added on top - taking the total cost to the importer to $115. Companies who bring foreign goods into the US have to pay the tax to the government, and they often pass some or all of the extra cost on to customers. Markets - winner Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose on Monday after news emerged of the deal framework. Under the framework, the US will levy a 15% tariff on goods imported from the EU. While this rate is significant, it is less than what it could have been and at least offers certainty for investors. The agreement is "clearly market-friendly, and should put further upside potential into the euro", Chris Weston at Pepperstone, an Australian broker, told AFP. European solidarity - loser The deal will need to be signed off by all 27 members of the EU, each of which have differing interests and levels of reliance on the export of goods to the US. While some members have given the agreement a cautious welcome, others have been critical - hinting at divisions within the bloc, which is also trying to respond to other crises such as the ongoing war in Ukraine. A big Trump win but not total defeat for Brussels French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou commented: "It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission." He was joined by at least two other French government ministers as well as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, who said that Trump "ate von der Leyen for breakfast". Carmakers in Germany - loser The tariff faced by importers bringing EU cars to the US has been nearly halved, from the rate of 27.5% that was imposed by Trump in April to a new rate of 15%. Cars are one of the EU's top exports to the US. And as the largest manufacturer of cars in the EU - thanks to VW, Mercedes and BMW - Germany will have been watching closely. Its leader, Friedrich Merz, has welcomed the new pact, while admitting that he would have welcomed a "further easing of transatlantic trade". That downbeat sentiment was echoed by the German carmaking trade body, the VDA, which warned that even a rate of 15% would "cost the German automotive industry billions annually". Carmakers in the US - winner Trump is trying to boost US vehicle production. American carmakers received a boost when they learned that the EU was dropping its own tariff on US-made cars from 10% to 2.5%. Theoretically that could result in more American cars being bought in Europe. That could be good for US sales overseas, but the pact is not all good news when it comes to domestic sales. That is down to the complex way that American cars are put together. Many of them are actually assembled abroad - in Canada and Mexico - and Trump subjects them to a tariff of 25% when they are brought into the US. That compares with a lower tariff rate of 15% on EU vehicles. So US car makers may now fear being undercut by European manufacturers. EU pharmaceuticals - loser There is confusion around the tariff rate that will be levied on European-made drugs being bought in the US. The EU wants drugs to be subject to the lowest rate possible, to benefit sales. Trump said pharmaceuticals were not covered by the deal announced on Sunday, under which the rate on a number of products was lowered to 15%. But von der Leyen said they were included, and a White House source confirmed the same to the BBC. Either scenario will represent disappointment for European pharma, which initially hoped for a total tariffs exemption. The industry currently enjoys high exposure to the US marketplace thanks to products like Ozempic, a star type-2 diabetes drug made in Denmark. This has been highlighted in Ireland, where opposition parties have pointed out the importance of the industry and criticised the damaging effect of uncertainty. Ireland 'not celebrating' Trump's EU deal US energy - winner Trump said the EU will purchase $750bn (£558bn, €638bn) in US energy, in addition to increasing overall investment in the US by $600bn. "We will replace Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of US LNG [liquified natural gas], oil and nuclear fuels," said Von der Leyen. This will deepen links between European energy security and the US at a time when it has been pivoting away from importing Russian gas since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Aviation industry in EU and US - winner Von der Leyen said that some "strategic products" will not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, certain chemicals and some agricultural products. That means firms making components for aeroplanes will have friction-free trade between the huge trading blocs. She added that the EU still hoped to get more "zero-for-zero" agreements, notably for wines and spirits, in the coming days. Solve the daily Crossword
South China Morning Post
2 days ago
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China launches first national childcare subsidies in bid to tackle demographic crisis
China has announced its most significant central-level effort to reverse a deepening demographic crisis since allowing families to have three children, unveiling a long-awaited national childcare subsidy scheme that will provide up to 10,800 yuan (US$1,505) per child under the age of three. The move came amid mounting urgency among policymakers to stem the population decline and blunt its long-term drag on economic growth and social stability, after years of piecemeal local incentives that failed to reverse the downward trend. China will provide an annual childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan for every child born on or after January 1, 2025, until they turn three – regardless of whether they are the first, second or third child, according to a government announcement on Monday. Children born before that date but still under three will also be eligible for a prorated subsidy based on the remaining months. More than 20 provinces across China have already experimented with childcare subsidies at various local levels. But this marks the first nationwide scheme introduced by the central government. 'The policy does mark a major milestone in terms of direct handouts to households and could lay the groundwork for more fiscal transfers in future,' said Huang Zichun, China economist at Capital Economics, in a report published on Monday. But he also pointed out that the sums involved were too small to have a near-term impact on the birth rate or household consumption.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The winners and losers in US-EU trade deal
The US and EU have struck what is being billed as the largest trade deal in history, after talks in Scotland. It actually resembles the framework for an agreement rather than a full trade deal, with details still unclear. But the headline figures announced by President Donald Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen do offer clues about which sectors and groups could be hit hardest or have most to gain. Follow reaction live Trump - winner After promising new trade deals with dozens of countries, Trump has just landed the biggest of them all. It looks to most commentators that the EU has given up more, with instant analysis by Capital Economics suggesting a 0.5% knock to GDP. There will also be tens of billions of dollars pouring into US coffers in import taxes. But the glowing headlines for Trump may not last long if a slew of economic data due later this week show that his radical reshaping of the US economy is backfiring. Figures on inflation, jobs, growth and consumer confidence will give a clearer picture on whether Trump's tariffs are delivering pain or gain. US consumers - loser Ordinary Americans are already aggrieved at the increased cost of living and this deal could add to the burden by hiking prices on EU goods. While not as steep as it could have been, the hurdle represented by a 15% tariff rate is still significant, and it is far more pronounced than the obstacles that existed before Trump returned to office. Tariffs are taxes charged on goods bought from other countries. Typically, they are a percentage of a product's value. So, a 15% tariff means that a $100 product imported to the US from the EU will have a $15 dollar tax added on top - taking the total cost to the importer to $115. Companies who bring foreign goods into the US have to pay the tax to the government, and they often pass some or all of the extra cost on to customers. Markets - winner Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose on Monday after news emerged of the deal framework. Under the framework, the US will levy a 15% tariff on goods imported from the EU. While this rate is significant, it is less than what it could have been and at least offers certainty for investors. The agreement is "clearly market-friendly, and should put further upside potential into the euro", Chris Weston at Pepperstone, an Australian broker, told AFP. European solidarity - loser The deal will need to be signed off by all 27 members of the EU, each of which have differing interests and levels of reliance on the export of goods to the US. While some members have given the agreement a cautious welcome, others have been critical - hinting at divisions within the bloc, which is also trying to respond to other crises such as the ongoing war in Ukraine. A big Trump win but not total defeat for Brussels French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou commented: "It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission." He was joined by at least two other French government ministers as well as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, who said that Trump "ate von der Leyen for breakfast". Carmakers in Germany - loser The tariff faced by importers bringing EU cars to the US has been nearly halved, from the rate of 27.5% that was imposed by Trump in April to a new rate of 15%. Cars are one of the EU's top exports to the US. And as the largest manufacturer of cars in the EU - thanks to VW, Mercedes and BMW - Germany will have been watching closely. Its leader, Friedrich Merz, has welcomed the new pact, while admitting that he would have welcomed a "further easing of transatlantic trade". That downbeat sentiment was echoed by the German carmaking trade body, the VDA, which warned that even a rate of 15% would "cost the German automotive industry billions annually". Carmakers in the US - winner Trump is trying to boost US vehicle production. American carmakers received a boost when they learned that the EU was dropping its own tariff on US-made cars from 10% to 2.5%. Theoretically that could result in more American cars being bought in Europe. That could be good for US sales overseas, but the pact is not all good news when it comes to domestic sales. That is down to the complex way that American cars are put together. Many of them are actually assembled abroad - in Canada and Mexico - and Trump subjects them to a tariff of 25% when they are brought into the US. That compares with a lower tariff rate of 15% on EU vehicles. So US car makers may now fear being undercut by European manufacturers. EU pharmaceuticals - loser There is confusion around the tariff rate that will be levied on European-made drugs being bought in the US. The EU wants drugs to be subject to the lowest rate possible, to benefit sales. Trump said pharmaceuticals were not covered by the deal announced on Sunday, under which the rate on a number of products was lowered to 15%. But von der Leyen said they were included, and a White House source confirmed the same to the BBC. Either scenario will represent disappointment for European pharma, which initially hoped for a total tariffs exemption. The industry currently enjoys high exposure to the US marketplace thanks to products like Ozempic, a star type-2 diabetes drug made in Denmark. This has been highlighted in Ireland, where opposition parties have pointed out the importance of the industry and criticised the damaging effect of uncertainty. Ireland 'not celebrating' Trump's EU deal US energy - winner Trump said the EU will purchase $750bn (£558bn, €638bn) in US energy, in addition to increasing overall investment in the US by $600bn. "We will replace Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of US LNG [liquified natural gas], oil and nuclear fuels," said Von der Leyen. This will deepen links between European energy security and the US at a time when it has been pivoting away from importing Russian gas since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Aviation industry in EU and US - winner Von der Leyen said that some "strategic products" will not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, certain chemicals and some agricultural products. That means firms making components for aeroplanes will have friction-free trade between the huge trading blocs. She added that the EU still hoped to get more "zero-for-zero" agreements, notably for wines and spirits, in the coming days. 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BBC News
2 days ago
- Business
- BBC News
US-EU deal winners and losers
The US and EU have struck what is being billed as the largest trade deal in history, after talks in actually resembles the framework for an agreement rather than a full trade deal, with details still the headline figures announced by President Donald Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen do offer clues about which sectors and groups could be hit hardest or have most to reaction live Trump - winner After promising new trade deals with dozens of countries, Trump has just landed the biggest of them looks to most commentators that the EU has given up more, with instant analysis by Capital Economics suggesting a 0.5% knock to will also be tens of billions of dollars pouring into US coffers in import the glowing headlines for Trump may not last long if a slew of economic data due later this week show that his radical reshaping of the US economy is on inflation, jobs, growth and consumer confidence will give a clearer picture on whether Trump's tariffs are delivering pain or gain. US consumers - loser Ordinary Americans are already aggrieved at the increased cost of living and this deal could add to the burden by hiking prices on EU not as steep as it could have been, the hurdle represented by a 15% tariff rate is still significant, and it is far more pronounced than the obstacles that existed before Trump returned to are taxes charged on goods bought from other countries. Typically, they are a percentage of a product's value. So, a 15% tariff means that a $100 product imported to the US from the EU will have a $15 dollar tax added on top - taking the total cost to the importer to $ who bring foreign goods into the US have to pay the tax to the government, and they often pass some or all of the extra cost on to customers. Markets - winner Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose on Monday after news emerged of the deal the framework, the US will levy a 15% tariff on goods imported from the EU. While this rate is significant, it is less than what it could have been and at least offers certainty for agreement is "clearly market-friendly, and should put further upside potential into the euro", Chris Weston at Pepperstone, an Australian broker, told AFP. European solidarity - loser The deal will need to be signed off by all 27 members of the EU, each of which have differing interests and levels of reliance on the export of goods to the some members have given the agreement a cautious welcome, others have been critical - hinting at divisions within the bloc, which is also trying to respond to other crises such as the ongoing war in Ukraine.A big Trump win but not total defeat for BrusselsFrench Prime Minister Francois Bayrou commented: "It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission."He was joined by at least two other French government ministers as well as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, who said that Trump "ate von der Leyen for breakfast". Carmakers in Germany - loser The tariff faced by importers bringing EU cars to the US has been nearly halved, from the rate of 27.5% that was imposed by Trump in April to a new rate of 15%.Cars are one of the EU's top exports to the US. And as the largest manufacturer of cars in the EU - thanks to VW, Mercedes and BMW - Germany will have been watching leader, Friedrich Merz, has welcomed the new pact, while admitting that he would have welcomed a "further easing of transatlantic trade".That downbeat sentiment was echoed by the German carmaking trade body, the VDA, which warned that even a rate of 15% would "cost the German automotive industry billions annually". Carmakers in the US - winner Trump is trying to boost US vehicle production. American carmakers received a boost when they learned that the EU was dropping its own tariff on US-made cars from 10% to 2.5%. Theoretically that could result in more American cars being bought in could be good for US sales overseas, but the pact is not all good news when it comes to domestic sales. That is down to the complex way that American cars are put of them are actually assembled abroad - in Canada and Mexico - and Trump subjects them to a tariff of 25% when they are brought into the US. That compares with a lower tariff rate of 15% on EU vehicles. So US car makers may now fear being undercut by European manufacturers. EU pharmaceuticals - loser There is confusion around the tariff rate that will be levied on European-made drugs being bought in the US. The EU wants drugs to be subject to the lowest rate possible, to benefit said pharmaceuticals were not covered by the deal announced on Sunday, under which the rate on a number of products was lowered to 15%. But von der Leyen said they were included, and a White House source confirmed the same to the scenario will represent disappointment for European pharma, which initially hoped for a total tariffs exemption. The industry currently enjoys high exposure to the US marketplace thanks to products like Ozempic, a star type-2 diabetes drug made in has been highlighted in Ireland, where opposition parties have pointed out the importance of the industry and criticised the damaging effect of 'not celebrating' Trump's EU deal US energy - winner Trump said the EU will purchase $750bn (£558bn, €638bn) in US energy, in addition to increasing overall investment in the US by $600bn."We will replace Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of US LNG [liquified natural gas], oil and nuclear fuels," said Von der will deepen links between European energy security and the US at a time when it has been pivoting away from importing Russian gas since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Aviation industry in EU and US - winner Von der Leyen said that some "strategic products" will not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, certain chemicals and some agricultural means firms making components for aeroplanes will have friction-free trade between the huge trading added that the EU still hoped to get more "zero-for-zero" agreements, notably for wines and spirits, in the coming days.
